If you go to their website and press play, you’ll see an animated graphic with the Northern Lights viewing forecast for today. The Ovation Auroral forecast provides a short-term Aurora forecast. I use the display of SpaceWeatherlive since they also show the moon phase, and it’s very intuitive to use. The best way to forecast the Northern Lights in advance is by using the long-term KP index. It is difficult to predict the Northern Lights over the long term.Ĭoronal mass ejections, which cause most of the solar storms and, therefore, stronger Auroras, are forecast 15 days in advance, but their strength and shape can vary once they get closer to Earth. Long-Term Northern Lights forecast – Long-term KP Index KP6 indicates a solar storm of grade G2, KP7 means a solar storm of grade G3, KP8 means a solar storm of grade G4, and KP9 solar storm of grade G5, the maximum ever recorded. ![]() It is already considered a solar storm of grade G1 at KP5. Aurora coronas are common, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in California, France, and even northern Spain. They can cover the entire sky and show rarer colors like red. Aurora coronas are also possible, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in England or the Northern states of the USA. You can see how they move across the sky, possibly showing vivid colors like yellow, pink, or purple tones. KP 4 to 6: The Northern Lights are active. The predominant color is green, and they are most visible in the northern sky at high latitudes. KP 1 to 3: Auroras are usually quiet and faint. KP is just an indicator, but in most situations: ![]() The higher the KP-index, the more likely you will see a big Northern Lights display at higher latitudes.įor example, with a KP 3, you’re very likely to see the Northern Lights in Iceland, but if you want to see the Northern Lights in England, the data says that you’ll need a KP 5 or higher.The higher the KP-index, the further south you can see the Northern Lights.The KP-index has a range of 0-9 and, generally speaking, has the following implications for the Northern Lights forecast: Here you can learn a little more about what causes the northern lights. This Aurora forecast indicator (known as “planetary K-index”) is simply a scale to measure the geomagnetic activity that is directly related to Northern Lights visibility. ![]() The KP index is the most common way to forecast the Northern Lights, and you can use it both for short-term and long-term Aurora prediction. In the Northern Lights forecast, there are three main indicators for tracking the Aurora: And SWPC's new Aurora Dashboard (Experimental) collects the products and information from across SWPC's website for a one-stop shop.Now, let’s learn to read the Aurora forecast and the Northern Lights maps so you can predict the Northern Lights in real time. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right.Ī short term forecast (~30 minutes) along with the last 24 hours of activity can be found on the Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast page. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. ![]() The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole. The two maps show the aurora and viewline tonight and tomorrow night. It also shows a 'viewline' that represents the southern-most locations from which you may see the aurora on the northern horizon.This product is based on the OVATION model and uses the maximum forecast geomagnetic activity (Kp) between 6pm and 6am US Central Time. This is a prediction of the intensity and location of the aurora borealis tonight and tomorrow night over North America.
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